No credit due

I PREDICT THAT this time next year we will have yet another 'massive overpayments of tax credits' row. I further predict that in the following year the Chancellor (whoever he or she is by then) will announce that the changes made in 2006 have reduced the overpayments very significantly. The target set is a very undemanding one third; I would expect that to be easily exceeded.

So everything in the Treasury garden will be smelling of roses will it? Well no. Or at least to get lots of good roses you need to cover the ground with a deep layer of something rather less fragrant …

The current problem

The scale of the overpayments for 2004/05 details of which were recently released was truly extraordinary. Few of the newspaper reports got past the headline figure of £1.8 billion overpaid but the more you...